Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis (r) shakes palms with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan throughout their assembly at Maximos Mansion in Athens, Greece, on December 7, 2023. [Yannis Kolesidis/EPA]
The latest cancellation of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s go to to the White Home instantly sparked discussions about its potential repercussions on Greek-Turkish relations, significantly in regards to the scheduled go to of Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis to Ankara on Could 13. Each governments reacted swiftly: Upon studying of Erdogan’s canceled go to, Greek International Minister George Gerapetritis promptly initiated a disaster assembly together with his Turkish counterpart, Hakan Fidan, in London. Diplomatic sources in Athens reveal that the ministers meticulously strategized the agenda for the upcoming Ankara summit, leaving no element to likelihood.
For over a 12 months now, we have now been witnessing a interval of detente in relations between the Aegean neighbors. The head of this political course of was the summit assembly between the Greek prime minister and the Turkish president in Athens on December 7 final 12 months. Behind the scenes, Western governments, particularly Washington and Berlin, have been instrumental in selling this improvement.
For Turkish international coverage, enhancing relations with Greece aligns with a broader technique geared toward repairing ties with the West, significantly the USA. Regardless of enduring variations, primarily in Center East coverage, there are at the moment no indicators that the rift in Turkish-American relations is adversely affecting Athens-Ankara ties.
Greece and Turkey are striving to insulate their relations from the toxicity of exterior conflicts, notably the Gaza struggle, signaling a dedication to detente. President Erdogan’s latest conciliatory remarks and Prime Minister Mitsotakis’ acknowledgment of progress underscore this shared aspiration for stability. “There are not any issues within the area that can not be solved,” mentioned Erdogan. The messages from Athens have additionally been constructive. In an interview, the Greek prime minister spoke of “important progress in relations with Turkey” – and substantiated this with the commentary that “for months” there had been no violations of Greek sovereignty by Turkey within the airspace of the Aegean Sea.
Mitsotakis additionally articulated an important premise underlying the political course of with Ankara: “The variations of opinion stay unchanged,” he mentioned. “Our intention is to make sure that no crises come up [in our relations] that jeopardize calm and peace within the area.” A shorter abstract of the strategic goal of the Athens Declaration signed by Mitsotakis and Erdogan final December can be laborious to search out. There, either side solemnly agreed to work on enhancing and deepening their relations whereas reaffirming their elementary positions on bilateral points. The Athens Declaration, which has been a very powerful framework for bilateral relations since final December’s summit, outlines the method of detente. The textual content doesn’t say a phrase concerning the substance of the well-known variations between Athens and Ankara. On this foundation, diplomats and ministers have made progress on sensible problems with bilateral relations in numerous areas over the previous few months.
A breakthrough between Erdogan and Mitsotakis throughout their assembly in Ankara appears extremely unlikely – and is probably not even their goal at this stage
The broader and extra bold objectives of the “constructive agenda” and “confidence-building measures” intention to create a political local weather conducive to negotiating deep-rooted variations, significantly relating to the delimitation of maritime zones within the Aegean and the Jap Mediterranean. As of now, no tangible progress has been made on this regard, a breakthrough between Erdogan and Mitsotakis throughout their assembly in Ankara appears extremely unlikely – and is probably not even their goal at this stage.
Regardless of the absence of main crises, bilateral relations are removed from harmonious. Greece reacted strongly to Ankara’s plans to introduce the expansionist “Blue Homeland” idea into faculty curricula, a lot because it did to the latest opening of the enduring Byzantine-era Chora Church in Istanbul as a mosque. Mitsotakis has indicated his intention to deal with this concern in Ankara. It might be anticipated that Erdogan will reciprocate by expressing opposition to Athens’ announcement of making ecological safety zones within the Aegean. This listing of grievances between Athens and Ankara might go on.
The overarching query is whether or not the spirit of “friendship and good neighborliness” proclaimed in December in Athens six months in the past will endure or merely be a fleeting second on this fraught relationship. Monday night will present extra perception.
Dr Ronald Meinardus is a senior analysis fellow on the Hellenic Basis for European and International Coverage (ELIAMEP).
